Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 80327.971991 84793.599248 89255.967716 94046.442278 99040.293535 104089.403298 109576.937315
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 73258.476138 80115.231468 87156.514803 94917.549620 103221.491609 111829.598908 121417.142659
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 68096.339889 76591.118790 85504.332514 95532.770690 106480.182356 118046.541202 131168.971821
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 63738.058511 73417.665775 83760.242626 95598.626791 108738.318641 122839.314388 139079.527101
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 60962.851756 71682.537816 83316.906630 96830.771298 112042.669586 128583.129735 147873.331471
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 57630.908962 69077.940534 81683.266649 96524.239333 113446.459668 132067.419627 154031.485354
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 55833.172766 68071.761475 81722.551679 97986.237742 116740.078847 137591.074605 162427.093824
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 53918.190203 66803.989215 81351.376799 98877.107811 119298.828665 142222.999880 169775.788293
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 51715.566747 65082.414976 80349.994365 98940.869837 120821.390203 145608.037712 175654.699528
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49589.556950 63350.334645 79244.671926 98796.856081 122028.082651 148572.343335 181008.877434
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48675.836616 63017.239904 79747.128698 100512.672952 125391.661777 154033.170919 189277.710281
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 47814.718929 62697.424411 80223.786656 102164.330509 128658.892943 159377.293778 197426.364422
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 46447.236143 61728.501281 79903.941956 102860.948888 130811.207492 163456.549885 204167.611949
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 44768.969724 60316.230259 78995.154646 102801.323676 132025.060817 166409.752995 209580.772538
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 43444.156872 59295.961200 78523.346019 103237.396462 133811.178897 170032.779038 215797.750815
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 42000.861840 58072.028593 77751.130988 103259.038286 135056.244046 172982.605920 221198.018092
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 41249.682971 57702.707579 78021.990951 104558.611658 137863.970972 177828.699479 228914.284909
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 39790.677344 56367.470069 77028.579667 104230.293334 138619.507752 180149.869415 233546.227807
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 39260.608348 56223.567770 77533.607722 105784.209210 141721.638836 185358.638274 241740.751786
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 38493.398451 55738.038434 77576.574446 106731.151761 144051.469829 189616.682250 248782.274378
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 37385.905898 54763.780735 76956.004465 106798.905443 145248.712140 192459.193578 254074.196950
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 36238.532761 53700.602804 76187.410884 106645.810954 146141.449294 194907.760072 258873.541284
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 35961.346193 53804.633973 76942.094980 108469.573316 149568.358005 200547.598712 267691.695107